Very Short Range Statistical Forecasting of Automated Weather Observations.

Abstract

A procedure is developed for providing weather forecasting guidance over the short period of 10, 20, 30, ... 60 minutes. It uses automated surface observation elements as predictors and predictands. The model is founded on Markov assumption and uses multivariate linear regression as the statistical operator. Details are given on how the Generalized Equivalent Markov (GEM) model is constructed and how it compares with other objective methods such as climatology and persistence. Tests are performed on an independent data sample. Overall, GEM succeeds in bettering persistence and does so uniformly over the 6 projection periods of 10,20,30,....60 minutes. Keywords: Helicopters, Aircraft safety, Short-range forecasts; Statistical forecasts; Multivariate linear regression.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1986
Accession Number
ADA167049

Entities

People

  • Robert G. Miller

Organizations

  • Federal Aviation Administration

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Sensors

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Computers
  • Dew Point
  • Helicopters
  • Markov Processes
  • Mathematical Models
  • New York
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Rotary Wing Aircraft
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Stochastic Processes
  • United States
  • Weather
  • Weather Forecasting
  • Wind Direction

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science
  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Systems Analysis and Design