Structuring Expert Judgment in S/V (Survivability and Vulnerability) Analysis
Abstract
It is essential that the Air Force be able to predict the Survivability and Vulnerability (S/V) of structures exposed to various types of blast and shock waves. Direct testing is time-consuming, expensive, and often not feasible. Attempts to develop formal models have been limited because of the complexity of the problem. Therefore the predictions are typically based on expert judgments. However, expert judgments can be biased and unreliable unless carefully structured. This project examined the feasibility of using a Comparison-Based Prediction (CBP) method for structuring S/V judgments. The CBP method is designed to improve the quality of predictions by anchoring them in existing data and by creating an audit trail documenting how the predictions were made. A total of thirty-one Subject-Matter Experts (SMEs) were interviewed in an experimental paradigm contrasting predictions made using the CBP method with predictions made without using CBP. The research design was modified several times to incorporate improvements in the way CBP was applied to this domain, as well as to improve the experimental paradigm.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 1986
- Accession Number
- ADA171140
Entities
People
- David A. Strobhar
- Gary A. Klein
- Paula G. John
Organizations
- Klein Associates