The Use of Exponential Smoothing to Produce Yearly Updates of Loss Rate Estimates in Marine Corps Manpower Models

Abstract

The use of exponential smoothing to perform yearly updating of attrition rates is examined and has merit. It shows enormous flexibility in adjusting to changes in the environment affecting the attrition rates, and it displays almost as much accuracy as the method it is intended to replace while using thousands of times less data. A secondary purpose of this study is fulfilled in conforming that the current aggregate methods are outperformed by maximum likelihood estimation, transform cell James-Stein. Nonen of these four methods is dominant overall, but all are improvements over the estimation system now employed. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1986
Accession Number
ADA171774

Entities

People

  • Daniel L. Hogan Jr.

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Attrition
  • Classification
  • Combat Support
  • Computations
  • Data Sets
  • Environment
  • Estimators
  • Losses
  • Manpower
  • Marine Corps
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation
  • Resilience
  • Schools
  • Security
  • Translations
  • United States

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Naval Personnel Management
  • Systems Analysis and Design