Ambiguity and Actuaries: A Survey of Members of the Casualty Actuarial Society.
Abstract
This report is a non-technical summary of the results of a survey of the Casualty Actuarial Society conducted to test implications of Einhorn and Hogarth's (1985) ambiguity model with a population of expert subjects (professional actuaries). The survey instrument required responses to different scenarios in the form of either insurance premiums or willingness to trade to be made in the role of either a buyer or seller of insurance. The presence o r absence of ambiguity was manipulated by different versions of the scenarios that either emphasized uncertainty concerning probability estimates (the ambiguous case) or estimates that were reliable (the non-ambiguous case). In addition, probabilities of potential losses were varied across scenarios. Each respondent saw three of five different scenarios although some were asked to respond to two versions of specific scenarios. Questionnaires were sent to all 1,165 members of the Casualty Actuarial Society resident in North America in January and February 1986. The number of usable responses was 484(42%).
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1986
- Accession Number
- ADA173636
Entities
People
- Robin M. Hogarth
Organizations
- University of Chicago