Reliability Growth Prediction

Abstract

A reliability growth data base on nine avionic systems and thirty equipment items was compiled for the study. Several growth models were investigated and three were selected for application to the data: The Duane, AMSAA and IBM models. Goodness-of-fit tests for the models were applied and relationships between growth model parameters and equipment characters/program attributes were investigated. Both the Duane and AMSAA models were found to yield reasonably good fits to the data sets. Both models, however, were found to have limited utility as predictive tools. Anomolies in the growth data, such as burn-in effects and time delays in incorporating corrective actions tended to mask out any relationships between the growth parameters and equipment characteristics or program attributes. The IBM model was found to provide a more workable methodology for growth prediction. A prediction procedure was developed, based upon IBM model, which uses engineering information available at the start of the growth program. Guidelines for conducting reliability growth tests and examples of the reliability growth prediction procedures are provided in the report.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1986
Accession Number
ADA176128

Entities

People

  • G. J. Gibson
  • K. K. Mclain
  • R. K. Gates

Organizations

  • TASC, Inc

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • C4I
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Birds
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Data Sets
  • Databases
  • Electronic Equipment
  • Engineering
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • Information Science
  • Literature Surveys
  • Manufacturing
  • Regression Analysis
  • Reliability
  • Statistical Algorithms
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Surveys
  • Test And Evaluation

Readers

  • Inertial Navigation Systems.
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Regression Analysis.