An Interactive Computer Forecasting Model to Determine the Effects of Policy Changes on the Valuation of the Military Retirement System.
Abstract
In the past thirty years, as military retirement costs have climbed from 1% of the defense budget to their current 8% level, the military retirement system (and, in particular, the non-disability retirement component) has come under increasing criticism and scrutiny by the Congress, the public, and the news media. Recommendations from previous studies of the military retirement system have proposed various modifications to the system to alleviate alleged inequities and inefficiencies, and to reduce costs. A BASIC-language computer model (ENTRYAGE) was developed in 1983 as part of a thesis to perform a sensitivity analysis on entry-age normal retirement cost methods to evaluate some of these recommendations. At the request of the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense, an effort was initiated to revise the program to produce results that replicate those of the Military Retirement System Projection and Actuarial Valuation Program (GORGO) developed by the DoD Actuary. This study has determined that the level of sophistication of the GORGO program far exceeds that of the ENTRYGE model, and the major re-programming effort required was beyond the scope of this study. However, the ENTRYAGE model was not user-friendly, required single-line data input, and would crash when the operator made an erroneous data entry. Therefore, the ENTRYAGE model was extensively revised to incorporate menus, prevent program crashes, present results in page format, and, in general, make it more user-friendly as an analytical tool. Keywords: theses; MILRET Computer Program.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1986
- Accession Number
- ADA178580
Entities
People
- Peter G. Valko
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School