Very Short Range Statistical Forecasting of Automated Weather Observations.
Abstract
A procedure is developed for providing weather forecasting guidance over the short range period of 10, 20, 30, ..., 60 minutes. It uses the automated weather observing system (AWOS) elements as predictors and predictands. The model is founded on Markov assumptions and uses multivariate linear regression as the statistical operator. Details are given on how the Generalized Exponential Markov (GEM) model compares with persistence. Tests are performed on an independent data sample. Overall, GEM succeeds in bettering current short range weather forecasting techniques (i.e., persistence) over the six projection periods of 10, 20, 30, ..., 60 minutes. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 1987
- Accession Number
- ADA179104
Entities
People
- Robert G. Miller
Organizations
- National Weather Service