Mid-Latitude Wind Probability Model

Abstract

A model to estimate the probability of a strike on a point by a mid- latitude storm was developed and tested. This model was based on a vortex tracking program operational for quality control at the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center, Monterey, CA. An extension of this model to assess the probability of a mid-latitude storm causing 30 kt winds also was developed and tested. Both developments followed successful comparable probability estimation models for tropical cyclones. Model development is described and the test methodology and results are described and interpreted. Keywords: Decision aid, Strike probability, Wind probability, Mid-latitudes, Wind, Wind velocity.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1986
Accession Number
ADA179256

Entities

People

  • Jerry D. Jarrell

Organizations

  • Leidos

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Confidence Limits
  • Cyclones
  • Databases
  • Geostrophic Wind
  • Grids
  • Latitude
  • Military Research
  • Naval Operations
  • Navy
  • North Pacific Ocean
  • Oceanography
  • Pacific Ocean
  • Probability
  • Quality Control
  • Research Facilities
  • Tropical Cyclones

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers
  • Regression Analysis.