A Statistical Mechanics Model of Combat

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to model a Combat System utilizing modern methods of nonlinear nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. This initiates development of methods which eventually can be used as a decision aid to the commander in force planning, battle management, budgeting decisions, doctrinal evaluations, and combat analysis. A general method is developed and then applied to a particular battle scenario using the combat wargame JANUS. The method fits empirical data to a functional form (a Lagrangian) which describes the short time probability distribution of a set of order parameters. A maximum likelihood fit is obtained simulated annealing optimization algorithm. The most likely states of the order parameters and the associated risks (variances) of those states ultimately depend on the detailed structure of the Lagrangian. A long time probability distribution of the order parameters can then be found by using the path integral.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1987
Accession Number
ADA180483

Entities

People

  • Stephen C. Upton

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Attrition
  • Battle Management
  • Complex Systems
  • Computational Science
  • Computer Simulations
  • Computers
  • Differential Equations
  • Equations Of State
  • Fokker Planck Equations
  • Mechanics
  • Operations Research
  • Path Integrals
  • Phase Transformations
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Statistical Mechanics
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Military Training and Readiness Simulation
  • Operations Research
  • Statistical inference.