Using the Pilot Model to Study the Effects of Technological Change

Abstract

PILOT is large-scale dynamic model of the U.S. economy which synthesizes structural representations of all sectors of the economy is general equilibrium context. PILOT's process-oriented representation of production synthesizes engineering-type data (or judgments) about sector-specific technological alternatives into a consistent overall picture of the long-run consequences of technological change and of government policy and foreign market conditions in the context of technological changes ongoing studies focus on the effects of a 'high tech; (vs. a 'low tech') economy on aggregate and sectoral patterns of growth, and energy use over the next 25 years. PILOT implicitly embodies two central assumptions about economic behavior: all markets are perfectly competitive and firms behave so as to maximize the net present value of profits. Furthermore,we have simplified the general equilibrium framework by assuming that there is no uncertainty; all agents have perfect foresight. PILOT is thus a physical flow model which admits no role for financial instruments, including money. These characteristics have particular implications for the strength and weaknesses of the model as a tool for technology assessment and scenario analysis.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1986
Accession Number
ADA181048

Entities

People

  • George Bernard Dantzig
  • John C. Stone
  • Patrick H. Mcallister

Organizations

  • Stanford University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Business Administration
  • Commerce
  • Commodities
  • Electric Power
  • Electric Power Plants
  • Electric Power Production
  • Energy
  • Energy Consumption
  • Energy Production
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Health Care
  • Investments
  • Manufacturing
  • Materials Science
  • Operations Research
  • Petroleum
  • Production

Fields of Study

  • Economics

Readers

  • Economics
  • Theoretical Analysis.