Implications of Atmospheric Test Fallout Data for Nuclear Winter
Abstract
Atmospheric test fallout data have been used to determine admissible dust particle size distributions for nuclear winter studies. The research was originally motivated by extreme differences noted in the magnitude and longevity of dust effects predicted by particle size distributions routinely used in fallout predictions versus those used for nuclear winter studies. Three different sets of historical data have been analyzed: 1) Stratospheric burden of Strontium-90 and Tungsten-185, 1954-1967 (97 contributing events); 2) Continental U.S Strontium-90 fallout through 1958 (75 contributing events); and 3) Local Fallout from selected Nevada tests (16 events). The contribution of dust to possible long term climate effects following a nuclear exchange depends strongly on the particle size distribution. The distribution affects both the atmospheric residence time and optical depth. One dimensional models of stratospheric/tropospheric fallout removal were developed and used to identify optimum particle distributions. Results indicate that particle distributions which properly predict bulk stratospheric activity transfer tend to be somewhat smaller than number size distributions used in initial nuclear winter studies.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 1987
- Accession Number
- ADA182607
Entities
People
- George H. Baker Iii
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology