Tropical Cyclone Readiness Conditions Setting Aids

Abstract

A procedure to set tropical cyclone readiness conditions with a high degree of reliability is described. Where possible, threshold values for 90% and/or 95% confidence are given for 50 kt tropical cyclone and typhoon (hurricane) readiness conditions. The method used a large of computer-simulated forecasts for actual typhoons (hurricanes) that passed near Yokosuka, Buckner Bay, Apra Harbor, Cubi Point, or Pearl Harbor. Wind probabilities were computed from these forecasts assuming present-day forecast error characteristics, and were compared to estimates of actural winds. These data were used to establish tropical cyclone condition thresholds at desired levels of confidence as related to wind probability. Keywords: Weather forecasting; Tropical cyclone strike probability; Guam; Japan; CHARM(Cyclone-Hurricane Acceptable Risk Model); Threat probability.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1987
Accession Number
ADA183150

Entities

People

  • Jerry D. Jarrell

Organizations

  • Leidos

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Cyclones
  • Data Sets
  • Hurricanes
  • Lead Time
  • Meteorology
  • Military Research
  • Naval Operations
  • Naval Warfare
  • Navy
  • Probability
  • Research Facilities
  • Second World War
  • Storm Surges
  • Storms
  • Tropical Cyclones
  • Uss Carl Vinson
  • Uss Kitty Hawk

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Coastal and Marine Engineering/Sediment Transport/Hydraulic Engineering
  • Regression Analysis.