Country Assessments and the Philippines.

Abstract

The collapse of Marcos's regime in the Philippines caught most observers off guard. Country assessments produced by U.S. government, Congressional, and private business sources before that downfall were examined to determine their usefulness for forecasting short-term developments. There was a remarkable consenus regarding the future of the Philippines, but none of them predicted Marcos's immediate downfall, which resulted from three factors: widespread corruption in the presidential elections, the defection of the military to the Aquino camp, and the role the United States played in pressuring Marcos to hold the elections and then to step down. Many of the issues identified as relevant to the Marcos regime are also relevant for the future of the Aquino administration. The insurgency poses a long-term threat. Immediate threats are civil unrest, military and governmental factionalism, and polarization among different political groups. Economic developments could also threaten the government's stability.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1987
Accession Number
ADA184114

Entities

People

  • Jeffrey D. Simon

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Agreements
  • Congress
  • Corporations
  • Department Of Defense
  • Department Of State
  • Economic Development
  • Economic Systems
  • Foreign Relations
  • Governments
  • National Security
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Risk Analysis
  • Societies
  • Terrorists
  • United States
  • Urban Areas
  • Warfare

Fields of Study

  • Political science

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Strategic Security Studies