A Methodology for Determining the Intent of a Limited Nuclear Attack.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to develop a methodology for determining the intent of a limited nuclear attack. An investigation of possible methodologies for determining intent lead to research in Bayesian analysis. It was thought that the answer to intent could be found by taking prior beliefs of the decision maker and then using Bayes Theorem to update those beliefs with ground-bases radar information obtained over time. Unfortunately the use of Bayesian analysis as proposed here in this research did not prove to be robust when the radar information is inaccurate. The reason for the inability of the proposed methodology to perform under the inaccurate radar parameters is that ignores too many of the complicating issues in determining intent.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1987
Accession Number
ADA185249

Entities

People

  • Robert L. Bivins

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Sensors
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force Facilities
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Command And Control
  • Computational Science
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Databases
  • Defense Systems
  • Detection
  • Detectors
  • Early Warning Systems
  • Insensitive Explosives
  • Operations Research
  • Students
  • Threat Evaluation
  • United States
  • Warning Systems

Readers

  • Regression Analysis.
  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference