A Personnel Flow Model for Predicting the Coast Guard Enlisted Force Structure.

Abstract

The U.S. Coast Guard is a military service with a hierarchical organization. CG manpower planning requires a forecast of the number of accessions needed as well as the resulting force structure for each month of the upcoming year. This thesis, presents a modified Markov transition model that integrates the pertinent personnel flows to forecast the monthly accessions and force structure for the enlisted CG. Personnel flows are estimated using standard statistical techniques such a linear regression analysis and point estimation. An algorithm is presented to solve for end of the month stocks while meeting a man year consumption constraint Full Time Equivalent (FTE) when attrition rates and the beginning and end of year stocks are given. Finally, the pertinent personnel flow estimates, the FTE algorithm ad the modified Markov model are integrated into a comprehensive Military Employment Capability Plan which is programmed on a micro-computer spreadsheet. Keyword: Attrition rates; Algorithm.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1987
Accession Number
ADA186673

Entities

People

  • Lance L. Bardo

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • Attrition
  • Coast Guard
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Employment
  • Enlisted Personnel
  • Flow Rate
  • Information Science
  • Management Personnel
  • Operations Research
  • Organizational Structure
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Recruiting
  • Recruits
  • Regression Analysis

Readers

  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Military Mobilization and Reserve Forces Studies.
  • Statistical inference.