Peacekeeper Test Strategy: A Pilot Decision Analysis.

Abstract

A pilot decision analysis was conducted to determine an optimal test strategy for the PEACEKEEPER intercontinental ballistic missile weapon system. Air Force officers experienced with PEACEKEEPER were consulted and their inputs combined into an influence diagram. The resulting model was solved using the Performa software program and showed that, while launching six missiles per year gives the largest expected value, little additional information is gained after the third launch. This simple model indicates that a new, more comprehensive decision-making process is possible. The model is flexible and can easily be expanded to incorporate any factors that a decision maker might want to consider before expending his scarce resources. It allows relationships between variables to be readily shown and more fully understood. This pilot model is a starting point from which new insights may be developed through the integrated use of currently available weapon system data. Keywords: Test and evaluation; Decision theory; Decision making; Surface to surface missiles. (Thesis)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1987
Accession Number
ADA187039

Entities

People

  • Walter W. Darnall Jr

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Ballistic Missiles
  • Computers
  • Department Of Defense
  • Environment
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • Flight Testing
  • Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
  • Logistics
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Reliability
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Weapon Systems

Readers

  • Missile Defense Systems.
  • Strategic Security Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design