A Comparison of Fitting Techniques for the Cumulative Average Learning Curves with Historical Lot Cost Data.

Abstract

The technique used to fit cost data to the cumulative average learning curve can have an impact on the accuracy of the estimates provided. This research tested two specific fitting techniques, the elementary technique (ET) and the Calot technique, in an attempt to determine which technique provides the greater accuracy when used to fit historical lot cost data to the cumulative average learning curve. Both techniques were evaluated on there ability to fit total lot costs and predict last lot costs. The ET and Calot fitting techniques were both used to fit the historical lot costs for 66 systems to the cumulative average learning curve. A comparison of the two techniques indicates that Calot estimates total lot costs with greater accuracy more frequently and with a significantly lower standard error then the ET technique. Calot also demonstrated the ability to estimate the last lot costs more accurately more frequently than 50% of the time. (Theses)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1987
Accession Number
ADA187127

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  • John K. Jones

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  • Air Force Institute of Technology

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