Effects of Stress on Judgement and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks

Abstract

Expert weather forecasters were observed as they attempted to forecast hail, microbursts, and severe storms. Studies of judgement policies were also conducted with representations of storms. Modest agreement among forecasters was found in all three cases, but hail forecasts were found to be of low accuracy. Judgement models, an AI expert system, and seven forecasters showed about the same degree of accuracy. Current psychological theory concerning judgement and decision making was found to be sufficient for these circumstances. Keywords: Cognition, Uncertainty, Dynamic task, Problem solving, Artificial intelligence.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 01, 1987
Accession Number
ADA188203

Entities

People

  • Kenneth R. Hammond

Organizations

  • University of Colorado Boulder

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Agreements
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Climate Change
  • Computer Graphics
  • Delphi Method
  • Doppler Radar
  • Expert Systems
  • Judgment
  • Military Research
  • Observation
  • Observers
  • Psychological Theory
  • Social Sciences
  • Storms
  • Technical Information Centers
  • Universities

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Information Retrieval