The Development of Decision Aids for Counter-Terrorist Applications
Abstract
This report describes a decision aid to assist the decision makers responsible for resolving a terrorist crisis. The potential counter-terrorist decision aids described in this report employ decision-analytic methodology. Decision analysis involves the construction of a mathematical model of a decision problem. Typically, a decision-analytic model is developed by decision makers with assistance of a decision analyst. A decision aid is a computer program which helps a decision maker in this endeavor. This report describes the results of preliminary investigations into the feasibility of developing a decision aid for counter-terrorist applications. This process involves identification of the decision-making authority to use the aid, specification of an appropriate methodology, development of an interface between the aid and available data about terrorist groups and previous terrorist incidents, and development and evaluation of the aid. This report concentrated on the first two of these aspects, although all were considered. The work described in this report has been fairly specific in that it was based on a Hostage and Barricade incident in progress, the seizure of the Dominican Republic Embassy in Bogota, Colombia, by terrorists from the group M-19 on 27 February 1980. The decision aid deals with specific actions that can be taken with respect to negotiation, confrontation, or attack on the barricade.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1980
- Accession Number
- ADA190396
Entities
People
- Michael F. O'connor
- Paul J. Sticha