Bayesian Solutions to a 2 x 2 Decision Matrix Using Interval Scaled Payoffs with an Application to Foreign Policy Decisions.

Abstract

Statistical Design Theory is applied to assessing objectively the uncertainty involved in foreign policy decisions. In an international conflict of interest situation, a protagonist is going to pursue. This problem is addressed by taking observations of the antagonist's behavior. These observations are interpreted as being associated with a specific course of action. Bayes formula is then used to update a conjectured a prior probability function to estimate the course of action being pursued by the antagonist. This updated (a posteriori) conditional probability function is then used to develop a decision rule to select an appropriate response. The decision rule is based on an ordering of possible outcomes, the values assigned to those outcomes, and greatest expected value of return.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1987
Accession Number
ADA190863

Entities

People

  • Alan R. King

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Bayes Theorem
  • Cold War
  • Decision Theory
  • Foreign Policy
  • Game Theory
  • Intervals
  • Mathematics
  • Observation
  • Probability
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Theorems
  • Two Dimensional
  • Uncertainty
  • United States
  • Ussr

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Strategic Security Studies

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference