Modelling Arms Transfers: An Application of KSIM Cross Impact Analysis.

Abstract

The arms transfer is modeled using KSIM, an enhanced version of cross impact analysis. The cross impact technique of forecasting is developed from its origin in the Delphi procedure through several of the key improvements to the original method. The KSIM approach to cross impact is discussed in detail, and is tailored to model arms transfers. A method of obtaining initial parameter estimates from and existing data base is described. The model is run and several proposed arms transfer policies are simulated. The implications of these policies are then analyzed.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1987
Accession Number
ADA191010

Entities

People

  • Michael R. Mara

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Agreements
  • Algorithms
  • Arms Control
  • Availability
  • California
  • Computer Programming
  • Data Sets
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Health Care
  • Language
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Procurement
  • Security
  • Simulations
  • United States

Readers

  • Allergy and Immunology.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Munitions and Ordnance Engineering