A Time Series Analysis of Energetic Electron Fluxes (1.2 - 16 MeV) at Geosynchronous Altitude.
Abstract
This project used a Box and Jenkins time series analysis of energetic electron fluxes measured at geosynchronous orbit in an effort to derive prediction models for the flux in each of five energy channels. In addition, the technique of transfer function modeling described by Box and Jenkins was used in an attempt to derive input-output relationships between the flux channels (viewed as the output) and the solar wind speed or interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) north-south component, Bz, (viewed as the input). The transfer function modeling was done in order to investigate the theoretical dynamic relationship which is believed to exist between the solar wind, the IMB Bz, and the energetic electron flux in the magnetosphere. The models derived from the transfer function techniques employed were also intended to be used in the prediction of flux values. The results from this study indicate that the energetic electron flux changes in the various channels are dependent on more than simply the solar wind speed or the IMF Bz.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1986
- Accession Number
- ADA194360
Entities
People
- Michael P. Halpin
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology