Air Logistics Early Requirements Technique (ALERT) Validation
Abstract
For five years, Air Force Logistics Command (AFLC) has used ALERT as a tool to forecast the budget program 15 (BP15), aircraft spares Program Objective Memorandum (POM) peacetime operating stock requirement. ALERT is a regression-based model that uses historical budget data to develop budget estimates by weapon system. These individual forecasts are then aggregated into an overall BP15 POM forecast, for the first POM period past the budget projections (three years beyond the current fiscal year) and for the four subsequent POM years. The ALERT estimation process allows for a management review of the statistically forecasted values. The authors also compared ALERT's statistically derived results against ALERT's results after the management review. They found ALERT was more accurate than other less sophisticated forecasting approaches. Indeed ALERT's forecasts for FY87 were within 2 percent of the actual obligations for FY87. This document proposes continuing annual validation of ALERT forecasts and recommends other efforts to improve AFLC's ability to forecast BP15 POM requirements. Keywords: Replenish spares requirements.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 16, 1988
- Accession Number
- ADA198629
Entities
People
- Adrienne Rexroad
- Larry Collins