Simulation of Adaptive Response: A Model of Drug Interdiction
Abstract
Concern about illicit drug use in America in the last decade has increased emphasis on interdiction of imported drugs. The seizure of drugs and smugglers as they travel from the source countries to the United States now accounts for 44 percent of federal drug enforcement expenditures. Although the interdiction effort has rapidly increased cocaine seizures since 1981, it has been ineffective at slowing cocaine imports, which have risen in quantity and declined in price. This Note presents a simulation model of the effect of interdiction on smugglers called SOAR (Simulation of Adaptive Response); the model attempts to take into account smugglers' adaptations to the strategies of interdiction efforts to reduce U.S. drug consumption. In SOAR, increasing the risk of interdiction raises the cost of smuggling drugs. Increased smuggling costs, in turn, raise the wholesale price paid upon importation. The price increase is passed on through the chain of distribution to the retail level. Increased smuggling costs therefore should raise the retail price by an absolute amount that is somewhat larger than the rise in the import price, because domestic distributors' costs increase. This effect on retail price, modeled very simply in an extension to SOAR, leads from increased interdiction stringency to a reduction in consumption. Keywords: Law enforcement.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 1988
- Accession Number
- ADA198961
Entities
People
- Gordon B. Crawford
- Karen Isaacson
- Patrick Murphy
- Peter Reuter
Organizations
- RAND Corporation