Decision Aid for Determining the Acceptability of Base-Level Competitively Bid Construction Projects
Abstract
This research was designed to apply statistical techniques to localized construction cost data in developing an expected range of estimated for base- level construction projects. Historical contract costs for minor construction projects under 5,000 square feet were broken down into the sixteen divisions of the Construction Specification Institute format. These costs were statistically analyzed to determine an acceptable method of forecasting the expected low bid and a confidence interval of values as a measure of project acceptability. The methods examined included mean square footage, summation of average division costs, summation of median division costs, bid simulation, multiple regression, and time-series forecasting. The technique were tried on two test groups, all projects in the data base and administrative projects only. Although all these methods can be used to develop a range of estimated costs, the more elements used and the more restricted the project classification, the better the estimate and the range of expected costs. These methods require additional research utilizing a larger data base and comparing the results with several new projects to determine the validity. Theses.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1988
- Accession Number
- ADA201487
Entities
People
- Allen D. Chasey
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology