Forecasting Outlays for the Air Force Systems Support Division
Abstract
This thesis was undertaken in response to the Air Force Logistics Command Comptroller's interest in improving outlay forecasts for the System Support Division (SSD) portion of the Air Force Stock Fund. The need to improve outlay forecasts is driven by the overall government need to manage outlays, due to the growing emphasis on controlling the annual deficit. The literature suggests improving outlay forecasting methods at the sub-appropriation level to begin the long-term task of managing outlays. The best technique for forecasting SSD outlays in this paper was the decomposition time series technique Census II. Census II was able to forecast to within one percent or one million dollars of the actual SSD outlays for the 3rd Quarter of FY 88. This was a significant improvement from HQ AFLC's estimate, which was overstated by 33% or $27.4 million. Recommendations included that the Census II and other time-series forecasting methods, such as Holt and Winters, be used to further test their ability to forecast SSD outlays as well as other appropriations.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1988
- Accession Number
- ADA201512
Entities
People
- Gary W. Boulware
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology