Discrete Reliability Growth

Abstract

Three methods for weighting an exponential regression model to estimate discrete reliability growth were derived. The first method systematically applies more weight to less variable estimates. The second method similarly applies heavier weight to the most recent estimate. The third method allows the user to choose the weighting scheme. These methods were evaluated against eight patterns of actual reliability by altering a previously developed Monte-Carlo simulation. Their performance was then compared to the unweighted exponential regression and Maximum Likelihood Estimate with Discounting (MLEWD) models. A comparison is made of the least squares estimates for reliability growth using two different unbiased estimates for the negative of the natural logarithm of the failure rate.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1988
Accession Number
ADA202027

Entities

People

  • Pamela A. Markiewicz

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Classification
  • Computations
  • Data Science
  • Estimators
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • Information Science
  • Mathematics
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Motivation
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Reliability
  • Schools
  • Security
  • Simulations
  • Statistical Algorithms

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis