Light Satellites - A Dilemma for the U.S. Army
Abstract
This thesis seeks to assist senior Army leaders in determining whether light satellite(LIGHTSAT) should be procured to meet current and future reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition(RSTA) needs on the battlefield. Two methods were developed: the decision analysis approach and the analytical hierarchy process. For each method, LIGHTSAT was evaluated against the Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System alternative. Sample data was used in place of actual values (unless otherwise noted). The decision analysis method required an influence diagram of the overall decision, a value model that elicited outcomes for each alternative, a model that would help determine the level of reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition achieved by each alternative and an assessment of probabilities of certain events occurring. Use of decision analysis lends considerable insight into the decision through the expected value of perfect information(EVPI). EVPI illustrates how much additional money should be invested into reducing the uncertainty within the decision. The analytical hierarchy process analyzed the decision through a hierarchy of objectives approach. Subjective judgments based upon experience were combined with quantifiable measurements to apply weightings to the various criteria within a level of the hierarchy. Synthesis of preferences between alternatives and weightings yielded an overall preference for the decision. Sensitivity analysis of the hierarchical structure offered insight into the criteria that might alter the decision. Theses.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1988
- Accession Number
- ADA202648
Entities
People
- James R. Pierson
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology