Long-Range Forecasting of Storminess Over the Northern Hemisphere oceans
Abstract
The focus of this research was directed toward 'heavy weather at sea' specifically to marine 'bombs' and their predictability. The approach involved analyses of bombs which occur overland, in order to determine the key signatures of bomb development. The two were: 1) A comprehensive diagnostic effort aimed at examining the nature of explosive cyclogenesis, including a comparison of bombs and nonexplosive, or regular, cyclones. The generation of vorticity, divergence, and latent heating patterns at the incipient, explosive, and mature phases of bombs were analyzed and compared to similar phases of regular cyclones. and 2) A numerical modeling of the bombs and regular cyclones using the same cases studied as in the diagnostic effort. A 'feature' component was developed and incorporated into an existing numerical model to improve prediction of central sea level pressure in a bomb. The model was also used to examine the sensitivity of cyclogenesis to slight adjustments in the input data fields, and to examine the trajectories of air parcels which were deemed to be important to explosive cyclogenesis. Keywords: Marine meteorology; Weather forecasting.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1989
- Accession Number
- ADA203949
Entities
People
- Bruce C. Macdonald
- Elmar R. Reiter
Organizations
- Colorado State University