Accuracy of MUF and Field Strength Predictions by HFBC84
Abstract
A statistical analysis of the accuracy of MUF and field strength prediction by HFBC84, a prediction program developed for the HF Broadcast World Administrative Conference, is presented. A data base of 13,054 hours of oblique sounder MOFs measured on 70 paths was used to obtain the residuals in the predicted MUFs. The MUF model had a bias of 1.17 MHz low, an rms error of 4.67 MHz, and a correlation coefficient with the measured data of 0.83. In the 4000- 5000 km range, the MUF model has a large negative bias (predicts high). It has its highest bias during summer when it is 2.2 MHz low. During winter it has a bias of 1.1 MHz low. The model reaches a minimum in bias at 1800 local time at the path mid-point; whereas, its maximum error is offset 12 hours from the minimum. A modified version of CCIR Data Base C was used to obtain the residuals in predicted field strength; only by 81 paths for short path propagation were retained (12,277 median values). The results of the study are presented as a function of the ratio of frequency to predicted MUF.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 1987
- Accession Number
- ADA204378
Entities
People
- D. B. Sailors
- R. A. Sprague