Alternative Environments for Army Recruiting, 1987-2001. Volume 3
Abstract
This three-volume report illustrates the application of the concepts and techniques of futures research to national security planning. Its focus is on the outlook for Army recruiting over the next 15 years, given the various ways that the external social, technological, economic, political, and military environment may evolve in this period, nationally and internationally. In Volume 1, four scenarios are presented that incorporate hundreds of original forecasts derived through use of an advanced version of the Delphi method. Three of the scenarios represent alternatives to the 'most likely' future, which is presented in detail. The results provide a unique foundation for identifying and evaluating policy options for Army recruiting, and guidelines for such a policy analysis are included, along with extensive discussion of the rational for this approach to planning. Volume 2 presents a variety of graphs depicting possible future changes. Volume 3 contains the appendixes. Keywords: Technology forecasting ; Military personnel; Delphi techniques; Army recruiting; Army personnel; Army manpower; Demography; Economics.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1988
- Accession Number
- ADA204728
Entities
People
- James L. Morrison
- Wayne I. Boucher