A Theory of Collective Induction
Abstract
Collective induction is the cooperative search for descriptive, predictive, and explanatory generalizations, rules, and principles. This article proposes a theory of collective induction in the form of seven postulates. It then describes a rule induction task that abstracts the two essential aspects of collective induction, group hypothesis formation and group hypothesis evaluation. The theory predicts the conditional probabilities of 11 types of group hypotheses for 38 types of distributions of correct, plausible, and/or nonplausible group member hypotheses on trial (group hypothesis formation). These predictions fit the obtained probabilities for 400 groups better than the predictions of two other plausible theories, each with considerable support in previous research on group problem solving and decision making. Three other sets of predictions were also derived from the seven postulates and supported by the results. Collective Induction, Induction, Decision Making, Statistics, Probability.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 23, 1989
- Accession Number
- ADA205062
Entities
People
- Patrick R. Laughlin
Organizations
- University of Illinois Urbana–Champaign