I&W(Indications and Warning) Applications of Catastrophe Theory
Abstract
Mathematical and statistical tools based on catastrophe theory have been developed and implemented as a fully functional software system which permits the capturing of data derived from analyst's perceptions of Operational Maneuver Groups related data elements and their analysis with a computer program based on statistical catastrophe theory. This system permits individuals with no mathematical background to undertake a rigorous analysis on non-linear I&W- related and other phenomena. These tools have been used in experiments with intelligence analysts involving the simulated detection of OMGs, one of the most difficult problems of tactical analysis. A set of unclassified notional indicators predicting the development of an OMG was developed and ten specific settings of these indicators were presented to intelligence analysts who were asked to assess the probability of OMG development. The resulting assessments were captured and analyzed and this revealed the existence of perceptual ambiguity as well as the potential for sudden gradual perceptual changes, perceptual hysteresis, and perceptual trapping.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 1988
- Accession Number
- ADA206116
Entities
People
- A. E. Woodcock
- J. Markey
- L. Cobb
- M. E. Familant