The Role of Uncertainty in the Management of Infrastructure Facilities
Abstract
This report develops a framework that recognizes and models uncertainty in all the stages of the infrastructure management process. Special emphasis is given to the integration of errors in data collection with errors in deterioration prediction, since no examples of such an approach are found in the literature. The motivation for a probabilistic impact model that includes the effects of uncertainties in data collection is discussed; and concepts relating to deterministic impact modeling are described. The sources of uncertainty in data collection and on the modeling of impacts are identified. The different approaches available in the infrastructure literature and in other fields for probabilistic modeling are also described. The final stage of the infrastructure maintenance management process, strategy selection, is discussed together with the nature of the uncertainty and probabilistic frameworks found in the literature. Directions for future research, including identification of data collection needs and areas for model development, are identified. Keywords: Infrastructure management, Impact modeling, Uncertainty, Maintenance management.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 06, 1988
- Accession Number
- ADA207408
Entities
People
- Frannie Humplick
- Rohit Ramaswamy
- Sue Mcneil
Organizations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology