A Comparison and Analysis of Strategic Defense Transition Stability Models

Abstract

This paper discusses the nature and causes of strategic stability and instability, how defenses affect the stability equation, problems of partial defenses and various attempts to model stability during the transition to effective defense. All of the models reviewed demonstrate that there is some stable path from no defenses to near perfect (99 percent effective) defenses, and the paper presents an integrated theory that shows the common nature of all of the stable paths. This paper demonstrates that the results of the various transition stability differ not in numerical results but in the measures of stability used. Recommendations for future transition stability studies are included, based on the review of the various models. The appendices contain detailed descriptions of models used in the various transition stability studies reviewed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1988
Accession Number
ADA208033

Entities

People

  • Ivan Oelrich
  • Jerome Bracken

Organizations

  • Institute for Defense Analyses

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Agreements
  • Air Defense
  • Arms Control
  • Ballistic Missiles
  • Contingency Operations (Military)
  • Defense Suppression
  • Defense Systems
  • Deterrence
  • Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
  • International Security
  • Midcourse Defense
  • Political Science
  • Security
  • Strategic Defense Initiative
  • Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles
  • Terminal Defense
  • United States

Readers

  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Finite Element Method (FEM) for solving Partial Differential Equations (PDEs)
  • Theoretical Analysis.