Effects of Stress on Judgment and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks

Abstract

Studies of expert microburst forecasters were conducted. Two studies yielded results confirming the validity of a linear model of expert judgement and the meaningfulness of profiles as representations of weather phenomena. A simulation demonstrated that a simple scientifically and empirically ignorant forecasting model could perform as well as a sophisticated scientifically informed algorithm. A study conducted under dynamic and highly representative forecasting conditions yielded the following major findings: a) agreement on precursor values was low to moderate, setting the possible upper limit on forecasting accuracy; b) agreement on microburst probabilities was lower under the highly representative situation than in our 'best case scenario' study; and c) new information received over time had very little impact on the experts' judgements. Keywords: Dynamic tasks; Experts; Uncertainty; Judgement.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1989
Accession Number
ADA210605

Entities

People

  • Kenneth R. Hammond

Organizations

  • University of Colorado Boulder

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Accuracy
  • Algorithms
  • Cognition
  • Cognitive Science
  • Colorado
  • Doppler Radar
  • Information Processing
  • Instructions
  • Judgment
  • Measurement
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Psychology
  • Simulations
  • Social Sciences
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Training

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.