Estimation of MPN (Military Personnel Navy) Obligations

Abstract

This research memorandum describes an analysis of methods that will enable OP-01 to monitor more closely the execution of the MPN appropriation. In particular, the analysis is concerned with the identification of leading indicators of Military Personnel Navy (MPN) obligations that provide accurate forecasts of fiscal year obligations within a few months the fiscal year's start. The study demonstrates that succinct and accurate estimation techniques may be applied to basic pay, retired pay accrual, basic allowance for quarters, FICA, and officer basic allowance for subsistance. Other pay catagories exhibit too much irregularity to be amenable to such forecasting methods. The analysis exhibits the margins of error that apply to the forecasts and are inherent in the Navy's information systems. Keywords: Compensation, Confidence intervals, Cost estimates, Financial management, Maximum likelihood estimates, Naval budgets, Naval planning, Naval personnel, Predictions, Regression analysis, Salaries, Statistical data, Tables (data). (KR)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1989
Accession Number
ADA213132

Entities

People

  • David M. Rodney
  • Jerry A. Hammer
  • Mark B. Geis

Organizations

  • Center for Naval Analyses

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Administrative Personnel
  • Business Administration
  • Classification
  • Delphi Method
  • Enlisted Personnel
  • Financial Management
  • Force Structure
  • Information Systems
  • Management Personnel
  • Military Personnel
  • Naval Personnel
  • Navy
  • Organizational Structure
  • Personnel Management
  • Recruiting
  • Training
  • United States

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Military Mobilization and Reserve Forces Studies.
  • Public Financial Management and Budgeting