Improving Marine Corps Enlisted Personnel Loss Forecasting

Abstract

This report describes the development of a model to forecast End of Active Service (EAS) and non-End of Active Service (non-EAS) losses. A validation study was conducted comparing the forecasts generated by the current method and forecasts generated by the method described in this report with actual FY87 losses. The Linear Exponential Smoothing method outperformed the current method in producing 1-year ahead forecasts at the pay grade and year of service level of detail. Further research will explore other model specifications including multivariate and econometric techniques.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1989
Accession Number
ADA213312

Entities

People

  • Carol Mullins
  • James P. Boyle

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Air Force
  • Business Administration
  • Competition
  • Computer Programming
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Enlisted Personnel
  • Inventory
  • Management Personnel
  • Manpower
  • Marine Corps
  • Organizational Structure
  • Personnel Management
  • Social Sciences
  • Specifications
  • Validation

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Naval Personnel Management