Forecasting Infrequent but Predictable Demands

Abstract

The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) manages some items that generally experience little or no demand. These demands are occasionally interrupted by larger demands. Items with this type of demand pattern are referred to as 'LUMPY' demand items. The functional effectiveness of current models used in the development of Quarterly Forecast of Demand (QFD), Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) , Variable Safety Level VSL), and Reorder Point (ROP) for these items has never been examined. DLA Directorate of Supply Operations (DLA-O) requested that the DLA Operations Research and Economic Analysis Management Support Office (DORO) perform a study comparing items with 'LUMPY' demand patterns to the other items managed by the commodity and determine if improvements to the existing system are necessary. DLA Integrated Data Base files were the source of item characteristic and requisitioning data. Stocked items for the Defense General Supply Center (DGSC) and Defense Industrial Supply Center (DISC) commodities were chosen. Recorded recurring and non-recurring demands were used as the demand base.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1989
Accession Number
ADA216270

Entities

People

  • Benedict C. Roberts
  • Patrick F. Miller

Organizations

  • Defense Logistics Agency

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  • Autocorrelation
  • Availability
  • Coefficients
  • Commodities
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Economic Analysis
  • Information Science
  • Interdisciplinary Science
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  • Logistics
  • Mathematics
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  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.