System Cost Probability Distributions for ACES (Architecture Comparative Evaluation Study) Architectures
Abstract
This report derives functional forms and presents the probability distributions for the acquisition and program costs for strategic defense system architectures developed in the second phase of the SDIO sponsored Architecture Comparative Evaluation Study (ACES). The input data are the nominal costs for each of the elements and the cost risk distributions for three elements, one each at low, medium and high risk. These are used as the basis for the cost risk distributions for all the other elements. Both log-normal and normal, independent and correlated distributions are used as the basis for deriving the total cost risk distributions for these alternatives. The results are the probability distributions for the acquisition and program costs for each of five architectures: the DAB Baseline, two all ground based weapon architectures and two all space based architectures. The description of the architectures and the nominal cost models are presented in the ACES report, not in this report. The results show a relatively tight + or - 10 - 15%) distribution about the nominal acquisition and program costs. This is due to our including only technical cost risk and correlations. The larger uncertainty is undoubtedly political: mission, threat and funding. Keywords: Cost effectiveness.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 30, 1989
- Accession Number
- ADA216321
Entities
People
- John L. Dyer