Refinement of the Air Force Systems Command Production Rate Model
Abstract
The AFSC's production rate model was developed in 1984 by The Analytic Sciences Corporation (TASC). In 1985, USAF Capt. Hugh Bolton addressed various shortcomings in the TASC formulation. Bolton also investigated two alternative formulations and discovered that both models provided better estimates overall than the basic learning curve model and the TASC formulation. This current effort analyzed several modifications to Bolton's original alternatives in an effort to derive better results. The first objective was to develop alternative formulations by expanding and/or altering TASC's and Bolton's formulations. These models should preserve the logic of the original formulations. The second objective was to compare the results between TASC's and Bolton's model formulations and the new alternative model formulations to determine which alternatives performed better and under what circumstances. The third objective was: 1) to investigate if statistical relationships exist for individual variables; 2) to determine which variables appear significant for different weapon systems; and 3) to identify any patterns that may exist in the occurrence of those variables. The modified formulations developed in this research outperformed the existing TASC and Bolton formulations. It was recommended that AFSC incorporate the new modified formulations into its Production Rate Model. Weapon systems; Industrial production rates; Cost/ regression analysis; Cost estimates. Theses. (edc)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1989
- Accession Number
- ADA216354
Entities
People
- Keith K. Agena
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology