Pitfalls in the Use of Imperfect Information
Abstract
High-intensity conflict has come a long way since the days when a proverbial Napoleon could stand on a hillside and take in the full scope of the battle. Commanders at the corps or theater level do not rely on their own senses for information, but on a group of specialists coordinated by the intelligence officer. That officer serves as a conduit to the commander, and is his source of information about the enemy. The quality of the commander's understanding of enemy intentions depends on the quality of the communication between the intelligence officer and the commander. Between the two extremes -- either the commander has no intelligence regarding enemy intentions, or enemy intentions are obvious -- lies the case of imperfect information, where there is non- trivial yet uncertain knowledge about the other side's intentions. In this kind of situation, breakdowns in communications can produce two possible results. Under-confidence: the intelligence officer communicates the uncertainty, and the commander disregards the information because it is uncertain; and Over- confidence: the intelligence officer suppresses the uncertainty, and the commander takes the information at face value. (SDW)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 1988
- Accession Number
- ADA216645
Entities
People
- William E. Dean
Organizations
- RAND Corporation