An Interactive Method for Estimating Hailstone Size and Convectively-Driven Wind Gusts from Forecast Soundings
Abstract
Interactive methods for forecasting potential hailstone size and convectively-driven surface wind gust velocities are applied to forecast soundings which better represent atmospheric conditions prior to the onset of convection. The forecast sounding is based upon the 1200 UTC sounding and is developed interactively by the user considering diurnal changes expected to occur in the lower tropospheric levels over the next 6-12 hours. Changes to the middle and upper levels are estimated by taking a fraction of the mean geostrophic advection of temperature for consecutive layers and adjusting the 1200 UTC sounding accordingly. Interactive capability allows for final adjustment of any or all of the data. Hailstone size and convectively-driven wind gusts are based upon key thermodynamic parameters (e.g., CCL, LFC, CAPE) derived from the forecast sounding. Reprints.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1989
- Accession Number
- ADA218499
Entities
People
- John P. Pino
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology