Probability Models for Theater Nuclear Warfare
Abstract
This paper proposes specific probabilistic approaches to address several major problems associated with the representation of tactical nuclear warfare at the theater level. The first problem is identifying the locations of small units (potential nuclear targets) such as companies or battalions within theater-level conventional scenarios or model outputs. Current approaches to identifying these small unit locations fail to take into account the variability that might be realized in any specific battle. A two-dimensional multivariate model is proposed to describe uncertainty about the precise location of the potential targets. The second major problem lies in the interface between theater-level nuclear analyses and conventional battle expected value simulations. An expected value model demands a single input to represent the effect of a nuclear exchange. However, a theater-level nuclear exchange may generate many different outcomes which will have significantly different effects. The probability models described in this paper may be used as a research tool to estimate the sensitivity of exchange outcomes to various data and assumptions, as a surrogate for detailed, complex simulation models; or as an estimator of the sample space of all possible outcomes of a theater nuclear exchange.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1989
- Accession Number
- ADA219192
Entities
People
- Mark A. Youngren
Organizations
- Center for Army Analysis