Reduction of Variance in Expert Panel Estimates of U.S. Army Combat Vehicle Crew Endurance

Abstract

An expert panel was assembled to explore the effectiveness of a novel method for reducing the variance of face-to-face group estimates. The panel's task was to estimate the effects of selected physiological and psychological variables on Army aviation and armor combat vehicle crews during representative combat missions. These missions were considered separately for two levels of individual protective equipment. The ESTIMATE-TALK-ESTIMATE method with an impartial group facilitator was used to control the process. The results from the panel demonstrated the effectiveness of this face-to-face, consensus-based method for reducing the variance of their combined estimates. The overall mean percentage reduction of the coefficient of variation was 39.8 plus or minus 0.8 percent. Keywords: Expert panel; Endurance physiology; Predictions; Chemical warfare defense; Human performance degradation; Group process; Modeling; Combat vehicle crews.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1990
Accession Number
ADA220801

Entities

People

  • Francis S. Knox Iii
  • Glenn W. Mitchell

Organizations

  • United States Army Aeromedical Research Lab

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Army Aviation
  • Artillery
  • Biomedical Research
  • Combat Vehicles
  • Databases
  • Health Services
  • Information Processing
  • Medical Personnel
  • Military Research
  • Personal Protective Equipment
  • Predictive Modeling
  • Protective Clothing
  • Protective Equipment
  • Psychology
  • Standards
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Naval Engineering and Maritime Security
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.
  • Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) Autonomous Capabilities and Mission Reconnaissance.