The Shining Path and the Future of Peru
Abstract
Peru is facing a compound crisis, a condition from which it will be difficult if not impossible to recover without first undergoing a period of serious political unrest. This condition has been created by the confluence of three distinct but mutually influential trends: the collapse of the modern economic sector, the slow radicalization of Peruvian politics, and the escalating threat posed by the guerrilla group Sendero Luminoso, the Shining Path. The first of these trends is manifest in an accelerating negative growth rate, hyperinflation, the depletion of the foreign reserve stock, and one of the highest per capita debts in Latin America. The most serious problem, ultimately, is the threat posed by the Shining Path, manifest in the group's growing range of operations, its new-found ability to appeal to traditional elements of the legal left, and the government's apparent inability to stop it. These three trends have now converged, resulting in a situation that is notably more unstable and potentially explosive than the sum of its parts. (jg)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1990
- Accession Number
- ADA223249
Entities
People
- Gordon H. Mccormick
Organizations
- RAND Corporation