The Effect of Outcome Desirability on Comparisons of Numerical and Linguistic Probabilities

Abstract

This thesis examines the observed phenomenon that when subjects have complete knowledge of a probability distribution, subjective estimates are found to be biased as a function of outcome desirability. The thesis extends that finding to situations in which subjects' know the probabilities based only on linguistic expressions. It was found that subjects' comparisons of numerical and linguistic probabilities were biased in various degrees toward the more desirable outcome, based on the particular phrase under consideration. (CP)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1986
Accession Number
ADA225101

Entities

People

  • Brent L. Cohen

Organizations

  • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Advanced Electronics
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Behavioral Sciences
  • Classification
  • Computers
  • Data Management
  • Experimental Design
  • Judgment
  • Literature Surveys
  • Military Research
  • North Carolina
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychology
  • Security
  • Social Sciences
  • Theses
  • Thinking
  • Uncertainty

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Computational Linguistics
  • Systems Analysis and Design