Meanings of Nonnumerical Probability Phrases
Abstract
This report summarizes three years of research on the meanings of nonnumerical probability phrases. The work is relevant to military needs because often the uncertainty of decisions is not well represented by the probability theory, but rather is imprecise, vague, or based on linguistic input. Techniques were developed and validated for representing the vague meanings of linguistic probabilities in individuals in specific contexts as membership functions over the (0,1) interval. There are large, consistent individual differences in the meanings of probability phrases within a single context. Additional research investigate context factors that affect the meanings of such phrases, such as the available vocabulary, direction of communication, desirability of the forecasted events, and the base rates of the forecasted events. The researchers also summarized experiments that compare decision making in response to numerical and linguistic probabilities. Finally, a theory that handles virtually all the empirical results was outlined. This theory suggests how the vague meanings of probability phrases are altered by context and integrated into single values to make judgements and choices.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 1990
- Accession Number
- ADA226544
Entities
People
- Thomas S. Wallsten
Organizations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill