Uncertainties in the Prediction of High-Altitude Nuclear Effects
Abstract
This document summarizes the uncertainties of some of those predictions of High-Altitude Nuclear Environments which users of the information-in particular system architects and elements designers--need. These users may accept the results of the detailed MICE/MELT, NORSE, or SCENARIO codes too uncritically, mistaking precision for accuracy. Note that the significance of a given uncertainty depends on the specific use, i.e., on can not give useful, generic and yet numerical uncertainty estimates. The presentation begins by establishing the relation between the threat, the environment, and the effects on survivability and operability, lists different effects of significance, and then presents a qualitative overview of our present understanding of the atmospheric nuclear environment. There follows a discussion of available data on High Altitude Nuclear Explosions (height of burst > 90 km), and an indication on where we do not have actual test data.. Then we discuss the interrelation of threat, actual bomb output, and environmental codes, followed by simple results on enhanced high altitude mass density (Heave) and on enhance ionization. Finally a summary on data and models is given.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1990
- Accession Number
- ADA227593
Entities
People
- Ernest Bauer
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses