An Attempt to Estimate Measurement Uncertainty in the Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) Model

Abstract

The Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model is a Gaussian puff dispersion model that predicts plumes, concentrations, and hazard distances of toxic chemical spills. A measurement uncertainty propagation formula derived by Freeman et al. (1986) is used within AFTOX to estimate resulting concentration uncertainties due to the effects of data input uncertainties in wind speed, spill height, emission rate, and the horizontal and vertical Gaussian dispersion parameters, and the results are compared to true uncertainties as estimated by standard deviations computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The measurement uncertainty uncertainty propagation formula was found to overestimate measurement uncertainty in AFTOX-calculated concentrations by at least 350 percent, with overestimates worsening with increasing stability and/or increasing measurement uncertainty.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1990
Accession Number
ADA227607

Entities

People

  • Mark D. Zettlemoyer

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Algorithms
  • Atmospheric Sciences
  • Cloud Cover
  • Computer Programming
  • Distribution Functions
  • Environmental Protection
  • Equations
  • European Communities
  • Measurement
  • Meteorological Instruments
  • Meteorology
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • New York
  • Simulations
  • Standards
  • Wind Direction

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Aerosol Science/Aerosol Physics
  • Environmental Engineering.